中等收入阶段的经济发展——基于生产率视角的讨论

How to Go Across the Aging Middle-income Stage? The Discussion on the Calculating and Improving Productivity

中国在步入中等收入阶段的同时,面临人口态势发生的重大转变,这是与其他任何国家不同的发展历程。劳动年龄人口减少和老龄化的加速,使得中国在跨越中等阶段的历程上面临着前所未有的挑战。在这样的发展背景下,中国经济今后如何获得保持经济增长的源泉和动力,怎样实现生产率的进一步提升成为重要的学术研究课题并具有重大的政策含义。针对我国当前特定的人口和经济发展态势阶段的特点,在梳理生产率的相关概念和测算方法的演化变革的基础上,特别关注对于提升全要素生产率的一般经验和有效途径。相关针对中国的研究表明,二元结构的转换以及区域经济的收敛成为我国过去生产率改善的重要源泉。国际经验表明:人力资本提升、要素市场的发育以及配置效率的提高成为改善生产率的有效途径。

China entered the middle-income stage when facing a major demographic transition, which is a different course of development from any other country. The reduction of the working-age population and the acceleration of aging have made China face an unprecedented challenge on its way across the middleincome stage. Under such a background, how to achieve the improvement of productivity, and how to gain further economic growth in our country are the important academic topics and policy points. In this paper, according to the characteristics of the current stage of the population and the economic development in our country, we focus on the relevant concepts of productivity and the evolution of measurement methods, paying special attention to the general experience and effective ways to enhance the TFP. Research on China shows that the transformation of the dual economic structure and the convergence of the regional economy are the important sources of past productivity improvement for China. International experience shows that the enhancement of human capital, the development of factor markets and the improvement of allocation efficiency have become the effective ways to improve productivity.