我国宏观审慎评估(MPA)的目标实现——基于金融机构顺周期行为与逆周期调节

Achieve the Goal of China's Macro-prudential Assessment(MPA)——Based on the Procyclical Behaviorand Countercyclical Adjustment of Financial Institutions

从理论上讲,宏观审慎政策与微观审慎监管最大的区别在于逆周期调节,熨平金融周期波动,实现金融稳定。从实践上讲,我国从2011年开始将金融机构信贷投放和宏观审慎相联系,2016年正式升级为MPA。然而,政策目标效果实现与否尚缺乏实证,在应对近期"宽货币、紧信用"方面面临挑战,表现为宏观审慎评估政策目标与地方法人金融机构行为之间偏差较大。这种偏差在削弱数量型货币工具对实体经济的作用时,是否说明金融遇冷期宏观审慎评估逆周期调节存在一定边界,导致宏观审慎评估目标难以实现呢?本文通过理论和实证研究认为以往的宏观审慎理论研究易于忽视经济周期信息;宏观审慎评估在金融周期的收缩阶段,释放一定的资本缓冲,可以给予金融机构一定"宽松"的信用创造环境,但经济下行以及金融在上一轮经济繁荣阶段的扩张带来的"过度透支"与内生性信用创造受损导致的经济金融周期"双紧缩"可能导致逆周期调节"失效",最终影响政策目标实现。

Theoretically speaking, the biggest difference between macro-prudential policy and micro-pruden. tial supervision is the counter-cyclical adjustment, which is aimed at ironing the financial cycle fluctuations and achieving financial stability. In practice, China began to link financial institutions' credit and macro-prudential from 2011, and officially upgraded to MPA in 2016. However, whether the policy objectives have been achieved was still lack of evidence, and it faced challenges in dealing with“wide currency and tight credit”recently, which was manifested by the large deviation between the macro-prudential assessment policy objectives and the behavior of lo. cal financial institutions. Does this deviation, when weakening the role of quantitative currency instruments in the re. al economy, indicate that there is a certain boundary of countercyclical adjustment of macro-prudential assessment in financial cold period, which makes it difficult to achieve macro-prudential assessment goals? Through theoretical and empirical research, this paper believes that the previous macro-prudential theory research may ignore the eco. nomic cycle information;in the contraction phase of the financial cycle, macro-prudential assessment releases a cer. tain capital buffer, which can give financial institutions a certain "loose" credit creation environment. However, due to the economic downturn and the expansion of finance during the last round of economic prosperity,“Excessive overdraft”and“double tightening”of the economic and financial cycle caused by damage to endogenous credit cre. ation may lead to“failure”of countercyclical adjustment, ultimately affecting the achievement of policy objectives.