中国林业产业发展的空间影响机制——基于31个省域面板数据的空间计量分析

Spatial Influence Mechanism of China's Forestry Industry Development: Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on 31 Provincial Panel Data

文中利用2006—2015年中国31个省域面板数据,对林业产业发展进行空间自相关性检验和空间面板计量模型分析,结果显示:中国林业产业发展具有显著的空间相关性,绝大多数省域处于H-H地区和L-L地区,通过空间杜宾模型也证明林业产业发展存在显著的空间溢出效应;在林业产业发展的空间影响机制中,林业产业的财政投入、林业系统年末从业人员、各省域造林面积、林业职工劳动力成本、林业产业已有规模水平以及第二产业产值比重和第三产业产值比重均对中国林业经济发展具有显著的促进效应,同时效应分解结果表明中国林业产业发展的空间溢出效应主要表现在其直接效应方面。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper conducts spatial autocorrelation test and spatial panel measurement model analysis for forestry industry development.The results show that there is significant spatial correlation in the forestry industry development in China, and most provinces are in HH area and LL area.The spatial Dubin model also proves that there is significant spatial spillover effect in the development of forestry industry.In the spatial influence mechanism of forestry industry development, the financial input, employees of forestry sector at the end of year, the afforested area of the provinces, the forest labor costs, the scale of forestry industry, and the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries in output value all have significant promoting effects on the development of China’s forestry economy.And the results of the effect decomposition indicate the spillover effect of China’s forestry industry development is mainly manifested in its direct effect.