指数型单元贮存寿命分布参数的贝叶斯估计方法及仿真分析

Bayesian Estimation of Exponential Component Storage Life Distribution Parameter and its Simulation Analysis

针对鱼雷、水雷和导弹等这类长期贮存武器装备的贮存可靠性问题,分析了当前装备贮存寿命难以准确获取的现实困境,指出单元件的贮存寿命是装备贮存寿命的关键因素。提出了一种利用实际贮存期间的检测结果数据来估计指数型单元件贮存寿命分布参数的贝叶斯估计方法,设计仿真试验分析样本数量、检测次数、检测间隔和初始区间预计等要素对估计精度的影响。通过算例设计和大量仿真验证的结果说明,该方法的估计结果令人满意,克服了传统贮存试验要求大量样本数据的弊端。

With regard to the problem of storage reliability in the long-term storage of weapon equipments including torpedo, mine and missile, this paper analyzed the practical dilemma of difficultly in accurately determining the storage life of existing equipment, and point out that the storage life of components is crucial to the storage life of equipment. For this reason, this paper proposed a method for estimating the exponential component storage life distribution parameter by utilizing the test results during the actual storage period. As revealed in the example design and numerous results of simulation verification, this proposed estimation method brings satisfying results, and overcomes the shortcoming of conventional storage test in its demand for a large number of samples, so it has very high value for practical application.