中国生育水平、生育意愿的再认识:现实和未来——基于2017年全国生育状况调查北方七省市的数据

Rethinking China's Actual and Desired Fertility: Now and Future

利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中北方七省市数据,通过总和生育率、孩次递进总和生育率、递进总和生育率、终生生育率及生育模式(婚育年龄)变动等多指标多维度综合评估,我国特别是北方七省市生育水平确实处于较低水平,但是并非处于极低水平,应该是处于1.5～1.9之间,受政策调整等因素影响只是波动不稳。同时,单独(全面)两孩生育政策对二孩出生增加有明显作用。对育龄妇女的生育意愿及其影响因素进行评估分析,用平均再生育意愿指标低估了人们的实际生育意愿,利用意愿递进生育率可以真实反映育龄妇女的生育意愿水平。根据生育意愿及其决定因素,特别是20～29和30～39岁年龄组的意愿递进生育率可以判断未来生育水平有上升的可能和势能。

This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patter ns (age patter ns of marriage and childbeari ng). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The twochild policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20 ~29 and 30-39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.