逐时风速概率分布研究

Research on Probability Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed

风速概率分布及其参数是体现风能资源统计特性的最重要指标之一。以山东省4个风电场测风塔和气象站测风年的逐时风速为样本,采用正态分布、指数分布、威布尔分布、伽马分布和Logistics分布对逐时风速概率分布进行研究,以Akaike信息准则判断概率分布的适用性。研究结果表明,威布尔分布、伽马分布和Logistics分布能更好的拟合小时风速的实际情况。

The probability distribution of wind speed is one of the most important indicators reflecting the statistical characteristics of wind energy resources.Based on the hourly wind speed data on the wind-towers in four wind farms and from weather stations in Shandong,this paper uses normal distribution,exponential distribution,Weibull distribution,gamma distribution and Logistics distribution to study the probability distribution of the hourly wind speed.Akaike info criterion is used to judge the application(fitness)of the probability distribution.The results show that Weibull distribution,gamma distribution and Logistics distribution can better fit the actual situation of the hourly wind speed.The probability distribution of the hourly wind speed is not the same between wind-towers and weather stations.