基于ARIMA和BP神经网络组合模型的能源消费预测

Prediction of Energy Consumption based on ARIMA and BP Neural Network Combined Model

在单一的ARIMA模型预测的基础上,提出了一种基于ARIMA模型和BP神经网络组合模型,并以广西区1981至2016年的能源消费数据为例,结果表明组合模型的预测精度要优于单一的模型,故利用组合模型对广西区未来能源消费的预测更加有效.

On the basis of single ARIMA model prediction, this paper proposes a combination model based on ARIMA model and BP neural network, and takes the energy consumption data of Guangxi district from 1981 to 2016 as an example.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is better than that of a single model. So the prediction of future energy consumption in Guangxi area by combined model is used, that si more effective.