2010-2016年甘肃省不同地域流感流行与气象因素相关性的分类回归树分析

Classification and regression tree model study on correlation between influenza epidemic and meteorological factors in different areas of Gansu, 2010 to 2016

目的探索气象因素对甘肃省流行性感冒(流感)流行强度的影响,为流感防控关口前移提供科学依据。方法本研究选择2010-2016甘肃省白银、天水、酒泉3个地区监测点的病原学监测数据及气象资料,通过交互相关分析确定各气象因素对流感发病效应的滞后时间,运用分类回归树模型遴选出对流感流行强度影响最大的气象因素。结果气象因素相关性研究显示,温度、湿度与流感流行强度呈负相关。天水市最高温度的3周移动平均低于19.11℃时流感流行强度升高1.89倍;酒泉市平均温度的3周移动平均低于8.03℃时流行强度升高2.01倍;白银市平均温度的3周移动平均低于8.68℃且相对湿度的14周移动平均低于61.04%时流行强度升高2.24倍。结论甘肃省流感的流行受气象因素影响,寒冷干燥的气象条件有利于流感在人群中传播。

Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on the influenza epidemic intensity in Gansu province and provide scientific evidence for the improvement of timeliness of influenza prevention and control.Methods Three surveillance areas were selected,i.e.Baiyin,Tianshui and Jiuquan.The influenza surveillance data and meteorological data of the three areas were collected,and the lag time of various meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza was analyzed by cross correlation analysis.Classification and regression tree(CART)was used model to select the meteorological factors which had the greatest impact on the epidemic intensity.Results Meteorological factors correlation studies showed that temperature and humidity were negatively correlated with influenza epidemic intensity.The influenza epidemic intensity in Tianshui increased by 1.89 times when the 3 weeks moving average of maximum temperature was below 19.11℃;the influenza epidemic intensity in Jiuquan increased by 2.01 times when the 3 weeks moving average of average temperature was below8.03℃;the influenza epidemic intensity of Baiyin increased by 2.24 times when the 3 weeks moving average of average temperature was below 8.68℃and the 14 weeks moving average of relative humidity was below 61.04%.Conclusion Meteorological factors could affect the incidence of influenza,cold and dry weather would be suitable for the spread of influenza in population.