基于泰尔指数的区域经济不平衡测度及影响因素分析

Measure of regional economic imbalance based on Theil index and the analysis of influencing factors

我国社会经济高速发展的同时,也伴随着区域间的不平衡性,明确不平衡性的大小及其影响因素,是实现区域协调发展的关键。从中国省际及东部、中部、西南、西北、东北5个区域视角,通过人均GDP的泰尔指数测度了区域经济发展水平不平衡性的总体差异,并对其进行了区域内和区域间的分解,实证分析了资本、人力、制度及技术要素对区域经济发展水平不平衡的影响。结果发现,省际间经济发展水平的不平衡性呈现出增大-减小-增大的“N”字型变化趋势,其中东部和东北部地区在下降,西北部地区上升,中部和西南地区变化不明显;资本、人力、制度要素对不平衡性产生了显著的正向影响,而技术要素对省际及东北和西北地区经济发展水平的不平衡性产生了抑制的作用。

China s social economy has developed rapidly,but it also accompanied with the imbalance in regions.To clarify the magnitude of the imbalance and its influencing factors is the key to reduce the imbalance and achieve regional coordinated development.From the perspective of the provinces,east,central,southwest,northwest and northeast in China,this paper investigates the overall difference of imbalance of economic development level and decomposes the difference within and between regions by Theil index.At the same time,it empirically analyzes the influence of capital,human,institutional and technical factor on the unbalance of regional economic development level.The results show that the imbalance of inter-provincial economic development level presents an increasing-decreasing-increasing“N”shape trend.The east and northeast regions are decreasing,the northwest regions are increasing,and the central and southwest regions are not changing significantly.Capital factor,human factor and system factor have a significant positive impact on the imbalance,while technical factor has a restraining effect on the imbalance of economic development level in provinces,northeast and northwest in China.