基于GIS空间分析的城市火灾风险评估——以驻马店市中心城区为例

Assessment of the urban fire risk prevention based on the GIS spatial analysisprinciple——takingZhumadian downtown area as a case study sample

基于GIS多种空间分析方法如核密度分析、可达性分析,对城市火灾风险指标体系从"空间-非空间"层面对致灾因子和消灾因子进行独立评估,利用改进的火灾风险度模型进行计算,最终得到驻马店市综合火灾风险图。结果表明:1)对致灾因子和消灾因子进行单独评估,评估过程相互独立,结果更加清晰合理;2)在评估指标体系构建中,增加了电量荷载和燃气负荷、用地类型等因素,指标体系更加完善;3)利用GIS空间分析从城市区域层面对火灾风险进行评估,有利于指导具体的规划和提出相应的措施。

The purpose of this paper is to bring about its evaluation of the probability of the fire risk among the urban spatial levels. First of all,the index system of the urban fire risk assessment has been constructed and presented,including the disastercausing factors and their disaster mitigation measures by taking the central urban area of Zhumadian city as a case study sample.As a matter of fact,with the fast development of the social economy,the urbanization acceleration and the fast growth of population may cause frequent urban fire,which is one of the serious and unpredictable threats to its residence. And,secondly,the spatial aspects of the regional features,the fire hazards and the fire-fighting and protection infrastructure have also to be examined and traced with various spatial analysis methods,such as the fishnet,the accessibility analysis and the kernel density estimation in terms of the experts grading method so as to identify and determine the non-spatial aspects of the satisfaction level in regard to the urban fire management. And,thirdly,it is also necessary to improve the fire risk degree and property classification model based on the spatial and non-spatial levels,on which the fire risk levels can be worked out. Therefore,we have managed to divide the space levels of the fire risk into 5 ones. And,the last but not the least,the suggestive model on the fire protection and control planning strengthening has been proposed. The suggested model can be shown as follows:( 1) The indicators of the disaster-causing factors and disaster-eliminating factors can be evaluated by using the spatial analysis method particularly. In the process of evaluation,the indicators can be adopted independently of each other,and the evaluation results of the indicators can be identified and determined reasonably at the spatial level;( 2) In the view of the availability of the index data and the practicability of the technical methods,it is possible to neglect the previous data gained as to the electricity load,gas load,land type and other respective indicators. Therefore,in the construction of the evaluation index system,all the said indicators should also be taken into account to improve the index system for fire fighting and prevention;( 3) By way of data management and powerful spatial analysis technology of GIS,it would be also necessary to integrate the information collection,analysis and graphics of the evaluation indicators into a quantitative analysis system so as to be made into a set of the directions of future development and exploration.