中国天然气产量中长期走势预测研究

Prediction Study of the medium and long-term natural gas production in China

天然气产量变化曲线呈非对称状性,且可能存在多个生命旋回的现象,将一个生命旋回看作一个产量循环,选取多循环广义翁氏模型作为预测模型。为消除循环个数选择的主观性对结果带来的影响,引入F检验得到改进的多循环广义翁氏模型,并以此模型预测我国天然气产量。结果表明:在现有的技术条件,我国天然气产量峰值将于2028年到来,峰值产量约为1 858亿m^3。而如果考虑未来勘探和技术投入,我国天然气产量将保持较长时期的增长,高峰产量在2055-2060年出现,峰值产量为3 982亿~4 663亿m^3。通过与国际主流能源机构对我国天然气产量预测的结果对比发现,目前的技术水平达到的储量值与国际能源机构的预测相差甚远,只有持续增加勘探投入、提高技术水平才能持续推动天然气产量的增长,维持天然气行业的稳定发展。

The curve of natural gas production varies asymmetrically and there may be multiple life cycles,this paper chose the Multi-cycle Generalized Weng’s model as the prediction model,if a life cycle was considered as a production cycle. In order to eliminate the influence of the subjectivity of choosing number of production cycles on the results,an improved Multicycle Generalized Weng’s model was established by introducing F-test method,and the model was used to predict the natural gas production in China. The results showed that under the existing technical conditions,the peak year of China’s natural gas production will come in 2028,with a peak production of about 185.8 billion m^3. However,if the future improvement of exploration and exploitation technology was considered,China’s natural gas production will maintain a long-term growth.The peak production will appear in 2055-2060 at about 398.2 billion ~466.3 billion m^3. A comparison of this paper’s results with those from the international mainstream energy agency showed that the estimated reserves under current technical condition were far from the predictions of the main energy agency. Only by continuously increasing exploration investment and continued technological advances can promote the growth of natural gas production and maintain the stable development of natural gas industry.