无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的影响

The effect of ambient temperature on the activity influenza like illness andlaboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

目的了解无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的影响。方法收集无锡市2012年12月31日至2017年12月31日期间流感样病例监测数据、实验室病原监测数据及同期气象数据资料。利用分布滞后非线性模型研究气温与流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的关系。结果2012-2017年无锡市流感病例监测(influenza-like illness,ILI)总ILI%为4.96%,流感检测阳性率12.28%。无锡市气温对流感样病例的累积效应曲线呈近似"U"型,低温(10℃以下)和高温(20℃以上)均影响流感样病例的发生,低温效应滞后且效应较强,高温效应出现迅速且效应短暂。对实验室确证流感病例的累积效应呈近似"L"型,主要表现为较强的低温滞后效应,10℃以下实验室确证流感发病风险较高。结论气温影响流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的发病,低温是危险因素且存在滞后效应。

Objective To evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the activity influenza like illness(ILI)and laboratory-confirmed influenza(LAB)in Wuxi City.Methods Daily data of meteorological,ILI and detected influenza virus from 31 December 2012 to 31 December 2017 were collected.Distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to evaluate the exposure-lag-response of ILI and LAB activity to daily ambient temperature.Results During the period,the overall ILI%was 4.96%and influenza detection positive rate was 12.28%in Wuxi city.The overall cumulative association analysis suggested non-linear relationship between ambient temperature and influenza:U-shaped for ILI,while L-shaped relationship for LAB.Low temperature(<10℃)had strong and longer delay effect than hightemperature(>20℃)for ILI.The cold effect for LAB was stronger and longer delay,and the low temperature(<10℃)was risk factor for LAB.Conclusions The ambient temperature significant correlates with ILI and LAB,and low temperature might be risk factor with lag effect.