基于Logistic模型的突发事件网络舆情演化与干预研究

Research on Evolution and Intervention of Emergency Network Public Opinion Based on Logistic Model

突发事件网络舆情包含众多主体,各网络舆情主体的共同作用导致网络舆情复杂多变,网媒和政府作为舆情演化的主要干预力量,其干预行为在很大程度上控制着舆情演变方向。围绕网民、网媒和政府关系问题,分析网络舆情演化过程中网媒和政府对舆情的干预机制,并通过微分方程构建网媒和政府干预下的网络舆情演化模型,模拟仿真不同干预情景、干预节点以及干预强度对网络舆情演化路径变化的影响,为政府治理舆情提供决策参考。

Emergency network public opinion includes many subjects.The common function of each subject of network public opinion leads to the complexity and variety of network public opinion.As the main intervention force in the evolution of public opinion,network media and government control the direction of the evolution of public opinion to a great extent.Based on the relationship among neti?zens,network media and government,this paper analyses the relationship between network media and government in the evolution of network public opinion.The mechanism of affective intervention and the evolution model of network public opinion under the interven?tion of network media and government are constructed through differential equation model.The influence of different intervention sce?narios,intervention nodes and intervention intensity on the evolution path of network public opinion is simulated,so as to provide cor?responding countermeasures for the government to govern public opinion.