基于三方博弈的再生水回用市场演化路径分析

Evolution path of reclaimed water reuse based on three-party game

为促进再生水市场的构建,以西安市再生水回用市场发展过程为研究案例,采用演化博弈理论构建了基于政府、再生水厂商、消费者三方博弈的再生水回用市场推广模型,分析其博弈均衡及演化路径.结果表明再生水回用市场的演化过程可划分为四个阶段,不同条件下系统将演化至不同的均衡.发展初期政府支持和宣传能有效提高再生水处理量和回用量,发展中后期为了增强企业参与度和消费者接受度需要提高财政补贴、提高使用再生水效用、降低自来水效用、提升再生水厂商获利、减少政府管理成本.

For purpose of promoting the construction of reclaimed water market,this paper took Xi’an city asexample by researching on its development process of reclaimed water market.From the perspective of evolutionary game theory,we studied the equilibrium and evolutionary paths for a tri-game between government,manufacturers and consumers in the reclaimed water reuse market.Our analysis showed that the evolutionary process of reclaimed water reuse market consisted of four stages and the system could evolve to different equilibriums at different stages.Support from government can significantly improve the amount of reclaimed water treatment and recycling in the initial stage.In the subsequent stages of development,the participation of manufacturers and acceptance of consumers should be improved by distributing financial subsidies,improving utility of using reclaimed water,reducing utility of tap water,increasing profit of reclaimed water manufactures and reducing cost of government management.