贝叶斯网络在运营隧道结构风险评估中的应用

Application of Bayesian Network in Risk Assessment of Operational Tunnel Structure

运营地铁隧道结构风险复杂且影响大,如何高效评估运营地铁隧道结构风险等级,并快速辨识关键致险因素亟待解决。提出了基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的地铁运营隧道结构风险评估方法。首先阐述了模糊多态贝叶斯网络模型的构建过程,然后根据贝叶斯原理进行地铁运营隧道结构风险因素的概率预测及重要度分析来评估系统风险。最后结合工程实例验证了该方法的适用性,为盾构地铁运营隧道结构的风险预测和防范提供了参考依据。

The risks of subway tunnel structure in operation are complex and influential.How to efficiently evaluate the risk level of subway tunnel structure in operation and how to quickly identify the key risk factors to ensure the safety of tunnel structure need urgently to be solved.Thus,a risk assessment method based on fuzzy multi-state Bayesian networks is proposed.Firstly,the establishment process of fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network model is expounded.Then,the Bayesian theorem is introduced to predict the probability and analyze the influence factors of operational subway tunnel structure to evaluate the system risks.Finally,a case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method which provides a reference for risk prediction and prevention of the tunnel structure of subway.