基于情景分析的猪粪管理温室气体减排效应研究

Study on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Effect of Pig Manure Management Based on Scenario Analysis

猪粪管理对农业温室气体排放有重要影响,其中,规模效应和技术进步是其减缓温室气体排放的重要途径。本文以湖北省为例,量化识别了影响猪粪管理规模化程度的主要因素,并预测了2025年湖北省猪粪管理规模化程度。探讨了先进管理技术对粪便管理温室气体排放因子的影响,重点研究了猪粪能源化及肥料化等管理技术的发展趋势和前景。在此基础上,本文设置了三种情景分析未来猪粪管理规模效应与技术进步带来的减排潜力。结果显示,2025年经过生猪养殖规模扩张的湖北省猪粪管理规模效应的预计可实现约17万吨的温室气体减排,猪粪能源化及肥料化的技术进步预计可实现约893万吨的温室气体减排。若能实现猪粪管理规模扩张与技术进步的协同作用,则使用先进技术规模户的增加可以产生更多减排潜力,相较于规模扩张与技术进步减排量的简单叠加值,协同作用下温室气体排放量可增加11%。

Pig manure management has an important impact on agricultural GHG emissions,among which scale effect and technological progress are important ways to reduce GHG emissions.Taking Hubei province as an example,this paper quantified and identified the main factors affecting the scale of pig manure management,and predicted the scale of pig manure management in Hubei province in 2025.This paper discusses the influence of advanced management technology on GHG emission factors of manure management,and focuses on the development trend and prospect of management technology such as energy conversion and fertilizer conversion of pig manure.On this basis,this paper sets up three scenarios to analyze the future scale effect of pig manure management and the potential of emission reduction brought by technological progress.The results show that the scale effect of pig manure management in Hubei province,with the expansion of pig breeding scale,is expected to achieve GHG emission reduction of about 170,000 tons in 2025,and the technological progress of pig manure energy conversion and fertilizer conversion is expected to achieve GHG emission reduction of about 8.93 million tons.If the synergistic effect of scale expansion of pig manure management and technological progress can be realized,the increase of households using advanced technology can generate more emission reduction potential.Compared with the simple superposition value of scale expansion and technological progress emission reduction,the GHG emission under synergistic effect can increase by 11%.