过境水对南京市水资源承载能力的影响程度分析

Influences of transit water on carrying capacity of water resources in Nanjing City

过境水资源是沿江沿河地区社会经济发展用水的重要来源。定量确定过境水资源对沿江沿河地区的水资源承载能力的影响程度,为沿江沿河地区的水资源利用政策的制定提供依据,对保障沿江沿河地区社会经济稳定、良好发展有着重要的作用。构建基于耗水的水资源承载能力计算模型,并以南京市为研究对象,分别计算2015、2030年考虑过境水资源的南京市水资源承载能力和基于本地水资源的南京市水资源承载能力。分析各来水频率下过境水资源对南京市水资源承载能力的影响情况。结果表明:在日益增长的社会发展需求下,2015年南京市现有过境水资源状况对南京市水资源承载能力影响占比0.51,但随着社会经济发展,南京市过境水资源对全市水资源承载能力的影响程度将在2030年增长到0.59。

The transit water resources are the important source of water for social and economic development in the areas along the Yangtze River.The quantitative determination of the influences of transit water resources on the carrying capacity of water resources in the areas along the Yangtze River provides a basis for formulating the utilization policies of their water resources,and it plays an important role in guaranteeing the stable and satisfactory development of their society and economy.A model for calculating the carrying capacity of water resources based on water consumption is established.The carrying capacities of water resources in Nanjing City considering transit water resources in 2015 and 2030 as well as those based on the local water resources are calculated,respectively.The influences of transit water resources on the carrying capacity of water resources in Nanjing City are also analyzed.The results show that under the increasing demand of social development,the influences of the current transit water resources on the carrying capacity of water resources in Nanjing City in 2015 are 0.51.However,with the development of society and economy,the influences of the transit water resources on the carrying capacity of water resources in Nanjing City will increase to 0.59 in 2030.