装配式住宅市场的系统仿真与政策优化——以西安市为例

System Simulation and Policy Optimization in the Prefabricated Residential Market of Xi’an

从系统论视角出发,利用系统动力学方法构建装配式住宅市场仿真模型,以西安市为例,分析税收政策、金融政策、财政补贴和容积率政策对装配式住宅市场发展的激励效果,识别出灵敏政策并进行综合调控方案的设计.仿真结果显示:开发税费率、容积率、开发贷款利率和购房贷款利率为灵敏激励政策,而财政补贴和新房购置税费率的激励效果并不显著;提出两种综合调控方案并对比分析,发现边际效益最大化方案是西安市装配式住宅市场发展的较优策略.

From the perspective of system theory,the system dynamics method is used to construet the simulation model of the assembled residen tial market.Taking Xi'an as an example,the incentive effects of taxation policy,financial policy,financial subsidy and floor area ratio policy on the development of the fabricated residential market are analyzed and identified.Develop a sensitive policy to design a comprehensive control program.The simulation results show that the development tax rate,floor area ratio,development loan interest rate and home loan interest rate are sensitive incentive policies,while the incentive effect of financial subsidy and new house purchase tax rate is not significant;two comprehensive control programs are proposed and compared,the discovery of the marginal benefit maximization scheme is a better strategy for the development of the fabricated residential market in Xi'an.