基于熵权物元可拓的煤层突出危险性评价

Risk assessment of the coal seam outburst based on entropy weight matter element extension

为了准确评判煤层突出危险性程度,降低煤炭开采过程中煤与瓦斯突出事故的风险,基于熵权物元可拓理论建立了煤层突出危险性评价模型。根据突出综合作用假说及瓦斯地质理论,构建了包含煤层与地质条件、瓦斯条件、煤体物理性质条件3个一级指标和构造复杂程度、煤层瓦斯压力、煤的坚固性系数等9个二级指标的评价指标体系。建立各项指标的经典域和关联度函数,引入熵权法客观赋予各评价指标权重,计算加权关联度,进而得出评价煤层突出危险性等级。在工程应用中,对贵州宏宇煤矿5#、6#煤层进行了突出危险性评价,计算得出5#、6#煤层的突出危险性等级均为Ⅳ,具有较强突出危险性。研究表明:评价结果与该矿曾经发生过突出、打钻过程中出现卡钻等现象一致;将熵权物元可拓评价模型应用于煤层突出危险性评价是可行和有效的,应用该模型得到的突出危险性等级与该矿实际情况相吻合。

The present paper is aimed at establishing and presenting a coal outburst risk assessment model based on the entropy weight matter element extension theory with its purpose to judge the degree of coal outburst risk and reduce the risk of coal and gas outburst accidents accurately for the coal mining. As a matter of fact,according to the hypothesis of the comprehensive geological action of the outburst and the geological theory of the underground gas,we have proposed a 3 first-order indexes including the coal seam and geological condition,the gas condition and the physical property condition of the coal embodiment,and the structural complexity and coal seam gas pressure,so as to integrate the coal seam and geological condition with the gas condition and physical condition of the coal body’s own. The evaluation index system of the 9 2 ndorder indexes,i. e. the firmness coefficients of the coal. The classical domain and the correlation degree functions of each index can be confirmed and established,whereas the weight of each evaluation index is given objectively by introducing the entropy method,so as to work out the correlated weighted value and then obtain the comprehensive evaluation results for properly grading the outburst risks with the coal seams. Taking the outburst hazard of coal seam 5#and 6#in Hongyu Coal Mine,Guizhou,as a case study sample,we have found that the grade of the outburst risk of coal seam 5#is Ⅳ,which can be relegated to the strong outburst risk,whereas that of the outburst risk of coal seam 6#turns out to be Ⅳ,also relegated to the strong risk of outburst. The results of our evaluation prove that our predicted results are consistent with those of the actual outbursts in the mine, which proves that the entropy weight matter element extension evaluation model is feasible for the actual evaluation and therefore suitable for the application to the relief of the outburst risk.