宏观环境变迁背景下粤港澳大湾区物流业布局时空演变规律研究

Study on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Logistics Distribution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under the Background of Macro Environmental Changes

文中考察了宏观环境变动下粤港澳大湾区物流空间布局演化规律。文中发现,大湾区物流规模总体呈上升过程中的,总体收敛的有限波幅波动;物流业显著空间相关,空间聚集特征随时间演化;物流重心空间演变承接特征明显,空间溢出显著,呈“单中心——外围”向“多中心——外围”结构变化;物流重心窄幅移动特征明显,始终在广州、东莞两地徘徊;2003年与2008年宏观环境的变动对重心迁移轨迹的方向与速度产生显著影响。文中认为,中国大陆经济社会发展对粤港澳大湾区物流布局演化产生了重要影响,区域物流规划中应重视空间相关性等产业聚集的影响,应注重环境与经济周期对区域物流布局优化与产业深度融合的影响。

This paper investigates the evolution law of logistics spatial layout in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area under the change of macro environment.It is found that the logistics scale of greater bay area is generally convergent in the process of rising.The logistics industry has significant spatial correlation,and the characteristics of spatial aggregation evolve with time.The characteristics of spatial evolution and undertaking of logistics center of gravity are obvious,and the spatial overflow is obvious,which shows the structural change from“single center-periphery”to“multi-center-periphery”.Logistics center of gravity narrow range of mobility characteristics are obvious,always wandering in Guangzhou,Dongguan two places;Changes in the macro environment in 2003 and 2008 had a significant impact on the direction and speed of the center of gravity migration trajectory.The paper holds that the economic and social development of China's Mainland has an important influence on the evolution of logistics layout in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area,and the regional logistics planning should pay attention to the influence of industrial agglomeration such as spatial correlation,and the influence of environment and economic cycle on the optimization of regional logistics layout and the deep integration of industries.