海洋经济驱动下的海岸带土地利用景观格局演变研究--基于CA-Markov模型的模拟预测

Evolution of Land-use Landscape Pattern in Coastal Zone Driven by Marine Economy:Simulation and Prediction Based on Ca-Markov Model

明确海洋经济发展对海岸带土地利用景观格局演变的驱动作用,对于科学推进海洋强国战略具有重要的价值和意义。基于转移矩阵和CA-Markov模型构建并模拟预测了2003-2031年山东半岛海洋经济带核心区域海岸带土地利用景观格局的时空动态演变过程,结果表明,不同发展时期海洋经济对研究区域海岸带土地利用景观格局演变的驱动作用存在差异,呈现出明显的阶段性特征,"十三五"至"十四五"末期,海洋经济将成为主要驱动因素,海洋经济全面转入内涵式发展以后,其驱动效应将逐渐减弱。未来海岸带景观格局逐步向良性发展模式转变,但耕地资源的保护依然面临着巨大的压力,应科学制定相关政策,加快推进海洋经济产业集聚与结构升级,以优化景观空间格局,全面提升海岸带生态系统服务功能。

It is great value and significance to make clear of the driving effect of marine economic development on the evolution of land-use landscape pattern in the coastal zone,so as to promote the strategy of marine power.Based on transition matrix and the CA-Markov model,this paper constructed and simulated the spatial-temporal dynamic evolution process of the land-use landscape pattern of the coastal zone in the core area of the marine economic belt of Shandong Peninsula from 2003 to 2031. The results show that obvious stage characteristics is present of the driving effect of the marine economy on the evolution of the land-use landscape pattern of the coastal zone in the study area. From "13 th Five-year Plan" to the end of "14 th Five-year Plan",the marine economy will become the main driving factor,and its driving effect will gradually weaken after the marine economy is fully transformed into connotative development. In the future,the landscape pattern of the coastal zone will gradually change into a benign development mode. However,the protection of cultivated-land resources is still facing great pressure. Relevant and scientific policies should be formulated to accelerate the industrial agglomeration and structural upgrading of the marine economy,to optimize the landscape spatial pattern,and to improve the ecosystem service function of the coastal zone comprehensively.