中美贸易摩擦对两岸经济关系及台湾经济影响

The Impacts of U.S.-China Trade Friction on Cross-Straits Economic Ties and Taiwan’s Economy

中美贸易摩擦对两岸经济关系正产生明显冲击,两岸供应链面临局部重整,双方贸易投资下降,并可能影响两岸产业链中长期发展格局。为应对中美贸易摩擦冲击,台商加大全球产能调配力度,台湾相关产业产值大幅上升、对美出口快速增长;但岛内相关产业的实际投资未明显增长,显示台商主要是进行不同出口市场产品的产地调整,而非产能转移;岛内多数产业并未因“转单效应”获益,总体经济受到明显冲击。两岸应深化融合发展、打造两岸共同市场,加快构建两岸主导的创新供应链加以应对。

U.S.-China trade friction is obviously exerting impacts on cross-Straits relations.Both sides are experiencing partial restructuring of their supply chains and a decline in two-way trade and investment,which may affect the landscape of cross-Straits industrial chains in the mid-to-long term.To cope with the impacts of U.S.-China trade friction,Taiwan companies accelerated to adjust the allocation of production capacity.As a consequence,the output value of relevant industries in Taiwan witnessed a sharp increase,and Taiwan’s export to the U.S.grew rapidly.Yet,the real investment into relevant industries in Taiwan did not register a notable growth,implicating that Taiwan companies have been indeed engaging in the adjustment of production place targeted at different products for various export markets,rather than production capacity transfer.Therefore,the majority of industries in Taiwan did not benefit from the order switch effect and Taiwan’s overall economy suffered apparently.To address this,both sides of the Taiwan Straits need to deepen integrated development,forge a cross-Straits common market,and speed up in building the innovative supply chain led by the two sides.