新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征的最新认识

An update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)

中华预防医学会新型冠状病毒肺炎防控专家组在文献回顾和专家研讨基础上,形成了对新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征的最新认识。病毒最初的来源为武汉市华南海鲜市场,穿山甲为潜在的动物宿主。目前传染源主要是新型冠状病毒感染的患者,隐性感染者也可能成为传染源,主要经呼吸道飞沫传播和接触传播,人群普遍易感。平均潜伏期5.2 d,流行初期基本再生数(R0)为2.2。患者多数表现为普通型和轻型。病死率为2.38%,合并基础疾病的老年男性病死率较高。新型冠状病毒肺炎的防控要点包括完善疫情信息监测、隔离诊治传染源、加快疑似病例诊断、规范密切接触者管理、重视聚集性疫情防控和院内感染防控、关注返程人员的疫情防控和加强社区防控。

Through literature review and group discussion,Special Expert Group for Control of the Epidemic of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association formulated an update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP).The initial source of the 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)was the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan,Hubei province,China,with pangolins as a potential animal host.Currently the main source of infection is NCP patients,and asymptomatic carriers may also be infectious.The virus is believed transmitted mostly via droplets or contact.People are all generally susceptible to the virus.The average incubation period was 5.2 days,and the basic reproductive number R0 was 2.2 at the onset of the outbreak.Most NCP patients were clinically mild cases.The case fatality rate was 2.38%,and elderly men with underlying diseases were at a higher risk of death.Strategies for prevention and control of NCP include improving epidemic surveillance,quarantining the source of infection,speeding up the diagnosis of suspected cases,optimizing the management of close contacts,tightening prevention and control of cluster outbreaks and hospital infection,preventing possible rebound of the epidemic after people return to work from the Chinese Spring Festival holiday,and strengthening community prevention and control.