基于国情调查大数据的矿产资源保障程度动态分析系统设计与实现

Design and implementation of mineral resources security dynamic analysis system based on Big Data of National Mineral Resources Survey

能源与矿产资源供应保障关系到国家资源安全。基于大数据模拟仿真技术,以资源经济理论驱动模型模拟未来不同资源供需前景,建设矿产资源保障程度动态分析系统(MRSDAS)动态评价未来中国矿产资源对国民经济的保障程度具有重要意义。系统以前期完成的矿产资源利用现状调查数据库为基础,结合矿山实地调查技术经济数据,搭建了矿产资源国情调查大数据平台,构建保障程度评价各个关键技术环节的评价数学模型和计算机算法程序。模型分为市场经济条件下占用资源可供性模型、未占用资源未来可供性模型、矿产品价格预测模型、消费预测模型、保障程度分析决策支持模型,系统功能模块涵盖数据库管理子系统、可供性分析子系统、保障程度动态分析子系统、决策支持子系统,通过调整矿种、规模、市场价格、运输等评价因子动态模拟未来资源供需形势,分析未来资源保障程度,支撑决策,保障国民经济建设。

Energy and mineral resources supply is related to national economic security,the construction of Mineral Resource Security Dynamic Analysis System(MRSAS)for dynamic evaluation of China's future mineral resource security is of great significance to the national economy.The system of mineral resources is based on the State Survey Database of Mineral Resources,and the integrated mining field survey data are used to build the big data platform of mineral resources.The system built on security evaluation of each key technology includes evaluation mathematical model algorithm and computer program,and the model is divided into a market economy model under the conditions of occupancy resources availability,future unused resources availability model,commodity prices forecast model,consumption prediction model,and the security analysis and decision support model.The system is divided into the database management system,the availability analysis subsystem,the security dynamic analysis subsystem,and the decision support system.The implementation of dynamic simulation of future resource supply and demand situation is based on parameters such as mineral species,scale,market price and transportation,etc.An analysis of the future resource would guarantee level support decision-making and the national economic construction.