考虑动态调整的金融稳定指数构建

The Construction of Financial Stability Index Considering Dynamic Adjustment

本文通过测算金融恢复能力来刻画我国金融体系在遭受危机后的动态调整潜能,并结合金融发展能力、金融防御能力以及金融平稳能力,从四个维度构建了我国金融稳定指数。在此基础上,本文进一步采用2010年1月至2019年4月的月度数据对我国金融稳定状况进行了实证检验。结果显示,我国金融稳定性近十年来逐步提高,由以金融恢复为主的被动发展局面逐步向主动发展模式迈进,但四个维度的能力并不平衡:金融发展能力与金融平稳能力在不断加强,金融防御能力与金融恢复能力则存在明显减弱的现象。对此,本文建议,监管当局在关注金融平稳发展的同时,应将防御金融风险、提高金融体系对风险冲击的恢复能力,作为我国现阶段维持金融稳定的主要方向。

Based on theoretical research and regulatory practice,this paper introduces the concept of financial dynamic stability,and describes the post-crisis dynamic adjustment ability of the Chinese financial system by measuring recovery capabilities,combines financial development capabilities,financial defense capabilities and financial stability capabilities to build the financial stability index,and then uses the monthly data of 2010M1-2019M4 to empirically analyze China's financial stability.The results show that China's financial stability has gradually been improved in the past ten years.But the four dimensions are not balanced:financial defense capabilities and financial recovery capabilities have been weakened.Thus,this paper suggests that while paying attention to the steady development of finance,the supervisory authorities should focus more on defending against the financial risks and improving the resilience of the financial system against shocks,which should be the main direction of Chinese maintaining financial stability at this stage.