黄河流域高质量发展的基本条件与核心策略

Basic conditions and core strategies of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域整体处于工业化中期到后期的转型发展和区域经济的起飞发展阶段,大体处于集聚功能大于扩散效应的"虹吸效应"阶段和区内发展的激烈竞争时期。高质量的中/高速经济增长是黄河流域现代化进程和可持续发展的前提。在大致梳理流域(区域)高质量发展的内涵及其理论演变的基础上,本文探讨了黄河流域高质量发展的基本条件及其核心策略。域内高质量发展的基本条件表现为农业发展的多样性和脆弱性,流域经济联系的松散性,经济发展阶段性及其内部差异性的约束,外部投资和产业转移等动力不足的约束等。这决定了流域高质量发展必表现为长期性、多样性、竞争性、协同性甚至区域化的倾向。因此,黄河流域高质量发展需探索"弯道超车"的核心策略:①在智能社会和全球化浪潮中,谋高质量增长,即持续探寻域内适合国家需求和地方特色的新型产业转型发展模式,建构适合各地方的特色化产业集群/产业链,提升综合竞争力;②探寻同质前提下的协同新模式,谋划流域协同和寻求特色化的新型城镇化模式,包括适合各地的人口城镇化策略和城乡统筹模式,尤其是基于土地流转的乡村人口向河谷/川地/盆地、平原、城镇的持续迁移路径,提高劳动生产率,关注水资源和基础设施建设等问题;③实施"中心突破"的体制,寻求中心带动的流域空间重构,推动中心城市和城镇群的健康发展,促进高质量发展。黄河流域高质量发展是一个至少20~30年的长期探索过程。

The Yellow River Basin as a whole is in the mid-to late stage of industrial transformation and the rapid development stage of the regional economy. It is in general in the"siphon effect"stage where the agglomeration function is stronger than the diffusion effect, and in the period of intense competition in intraregional development. Medium/high-speed economic growth of high-quality is a prerequisite for the modernization and sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. Based on a general analysis of the connotation and change of theories of highquality development in the basin(region), this article explores the basic conditions and core strategies of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The basic conditions of highquality development are the local diversity and vulnerability of agricultural development, the loose nature of the economic links in the river basin, constraints from the stage of economic development and its internal differences, and lack of momentum of external investment and industrial transfer,among others. These particularities determine that the high-quality development of the river basin must manifest itself in a long-term, diverse, competitive, cooperative, and regional orientation.Therefore, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin needs to explore a core strategy of"overtaking by curves":(1) With the development of smart society and globalization, the region should seek high-quality growth, that is, continue to explore new industrialization models in the region that are suitable for national needs and local characteristics, and build localized industrial clusters/chain to enhance comprehensive competitiveness;(2) Explore new models of synergy under the premise of homogeneity, plan river basin coordination and improve coordination mechanisms, and seek a new urbanization model of localization, including localized population urbanization strategy and urban-rural coordination model, especially the continued migration of rural population to river valleys/basins, plains, and towns based on land transfer. Improve labor productivity, paying attention to water resources and infrastructure construction, and so on;(3)Implement the"center breakthrough"system, seek the spatial reconstruction of the drainage basin led by the centers, promote the healthy development of central cities and urban agglomerations,and promote high-quality development. In general, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is a long-term exploration process of at least 20-30 years.