金融错配对宏观经济下行风险存在异质性冲击吗?--基于规模效应与效率效应的维度

Does Financial Mismatch Have Heterogeneous Impact on Macroeconomic Downside Risk?From the Dimensions of Scale Effect and Efficiency Effect

近年来随着我国宏观经济下行压力的不断加大,金融错配是否对宏观经济下行风险构成异质性冲击成为需要重点关注的问题。在阐释金融错配规模效应和效率效应引致宏观经济下行风险逻辑机理的基础上,以2005—2019年数据为样本实证分析了金融错配规模效应和效率效应对宏观经济下行风险的异质性影响。实证结果表明,随着对外开放和金融体系改革,我国金融资源配置中的所有制歧视已得到有效缓解,金融错配的效率效应显著改善。然而,由于规模效应在风险链条传导过程中的累积反馈,规模歧视已成为引发宏观经济下行风险的主渠道。这些研究结果为构建金融支持实体经济的政策框架和防范化解宏观经济下行风险提供了有益启示。

In recent years,with the increasing downward pressure of China's macro-economy,whether financial mismatches impact on the heterogeneity of macro-economic downside risk has become a key issue to be concerned about.On the basis of explaining the logic mechanism of macro-economic downside risk caused by financial mismatch scale effect and efficiency effect,and the data from 2005 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the heterogeneity of financial mismatch scale effect and efficiency effect on macroeconomic downside risk.The results of the study show that the ownership discrimination in the allocation of financial resources has been effectively alleviated,and the efficiency effect of financial mismatch has been significantly improved with the opening up and the reform of the financial system.However,due to the cumulative feedback of scale effect in the process of risk chain transmission,scale discrimination has become the main channel of macroeconomic downside risk.These results provide useful enlightenment for the formulation of financial policies to support the real economy and the prevention and resolution of macro-economic downside risks.