基于迁徙数据估计武汉感染新型冠状病毒的人员数量

Estimating the Number of People Infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan Based on Migration Data

根据武汉迁徙数据,该文通过统计分析2020年1月29日至2月9日全国50个城市感染新型冠状病毒的确诊人数比率,估计了武汉市感染病毒的人员数量。研究发现湖北省内15个城市的患者确诊比率在均值和中位数上低于省外35个城市的均值和中位数。截至2月9日,利用湖北省内城市确诊比率的均值、中位数和最大值估计,武汉市感染病毒的人数分别是已经确诊人数的2.1倍、2倍和3.9倍。利用省外城市确诊比率的均值、中位数和最大值估计,武汉市感染人数分别是已经确诊人数的3.6倍、2.6倍和8.7倍。最后利用Bootstrap方法对省内外城市的均值和中位数做了稳健性估计。

The number of COVID-19 infected persons in Wuhan is estimated by statistically analyzing the ratio of daily confirmed cases number data of COVID-19 in 50 cities in China from January 29,2020 to February 9,2020 owing to Wuhan migration.The study finds that the mean and median of diagnosis rate of 15 cities in Hubei Province are lower than that of 35 cities outside Hubei Province.As of February 9,2020,using the mean,median and maximum values of diagnosis rate in inner cities of Hubei Province,it is estimated that the number of people infected in Wuhan is 2.1 times,2 times and 3.9 times of those who have been diagnosed,respectively,while using the mean,median and maximum values of the diagnosis rate in cities outside the province,it is estimated that the number of people infected in Wuhan is 3.6 times,2.6 times and 8.7 times of those who have been diagnosed,respectively.The mean and median of diagnosis rate in cities in and out of Hubei Province are estimated robustly by bootstrap method.