精准扶贫政策与边缘贫困群体政治信任--基于断点回归的证据

Precise Poverty Alleviation Policy and Marginal Poverty Group’Grassroots Political Trus

维持农户基层政治信任稳态,是促进精准扶贫政策有效实施的必然要求,也是实现乡村振兴战略下治理有效目标的重要基础。本文利用2017年6个集中连片贫困地区1140户农户样本数据,通过断点回归模型重点考察了精准扶贫政策对边缘贫困群体基层政治信任的影响。研究结果表明:精准扶贫政策的悬崖效应对边缘贫困群体与基层组织间的政治信任稳态造成了一定冲击。具体来看,边缘贫困群体受到精准扶贫政策排斥,其基层政治信任相较于建档立卡农户降低了2.32;同时,基于边缘贫困群体在收入分配中的不利地位,其基层政治信任相较于高收入建档立卡农户降低了0.76。因此,为提升乡村治理能力,完善乡村治理新体系,需要严格执行现行贫困标准,调整精准扶贫政策的保障结构,并通过基础设施建设、公共服务供给及外部机会提供等方式,为大量发展能力薄弱的边缘贫困群体提供良好的发展机会和福利保障。

Maintaining the steady-state of grassroots political trust of farmers is an inevitable requirement for the optimization of precise poverty alleviation policies,and an important basis for the effective goal of governance under the rural revitalization strategy.In this paper,we use the survey data of 1140 households in 6 contiguous destitute areas in 2017,and focus on the impact of precise poverty alleviation policies on grassroots political trust of marginal poverty groups through the regression discontinuity design.The results show that the cliff effect of the precise poverty alleviation policy has a serious impact on the political trust between the marginal poverty groups and grassroots organizations.Specifically,the marginal poverty groups are excluded by the precise poverty alleviation policy,so their grassroots political trust is reduced by 2.32 compared with the poor household.At the same time,based on their disadvantageous position in income distribution,their grassroots political trust is compared with middle and high-income farmers reduced by 0.76.Therefore,to enhance the ability of rural governance,improve the new system of rural governance,it is necessary to strictly implement the current poverty standards,adjust the guarantee structure of the precise poverty alleviation policy,and provide better development opportunities and welfare guarantees to marginal poverty groups through infrastructure construction,public service provision,and external opportunity provision.