寒区隧道洞口段施工安全风险研究

Study of Construction Safety Risk during Construction of Tunnel Entrance Section in Alpine Area

依托金家庄特长隧道,针对寒区山岭隧道的特点,建立了寒区隧道风险因素集。采用模糊分析法,引入Karwowski隶属度函数表,根据工程实际情况确定各风险因素的判断矩阵和隶属度;采用层次分析法对风险因素进行层次结构构造,通过1-9标度法确定每个因素的权重,最后运用模糊层次综合分析法,构建出一种可以用于预估风险发生概率的模型,同时根据最大隶属度原则确定风险等级。结果表明,由寒区隧道洞口段施工风险因素和风险预测模型可知金家庄特长隧道洞口段施工风险等级为Ⅲ,与实际情况吻合度高,同时也验证了模糊层次综合分析法的合理性,对类似的风险分析提供了参考依据。

Relying on the Jinjiazhuang Tunnel,aiming at the characteristics of mountainous tunnel in alpine area,the risk factor set of tunnel in Alpine area is established.By using fuzzy analysis method,the Karwowski Membership function table is introduced to determine the judgment matrix and membership degree of each risk factor according to the actual engineering situation,and the hierarchical structure of risk factors is constructed by AHP,and the weight of each factor is determined by 1-9 scale method.Two methods are constructed to establish a model which can be used to estimate the probability of risk occurrence,and the risk level is determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree.By summing up the risk factors and risk prediction model of tunnel entrance section in Alpine area,in this paper it is concluded that the construction risk category of Jinjiazhuang Tunnel entrance section is Ⅲ,which is in good agreement with the actual situation,and also verifies the rationality of fuzzy hierarchical comprehensive analysis method,which provides reference for similar risk analysis.