摘要
欧洲中期天气预报中心近年发布了季节性的GloFAS Seasonal径流和SEAS5降水集合预报产品。选取长江上游6个控制站的径流预报及4个分区的面雨量预报为研究对象,通过计算分析AUC、ROCSS和可靠性等指标,评估了这2种产品对于长江上游水库群蓄水期的枯水情景的预报能力。结果表明:2种产品提前一个月判断枯水雨情的效果较好,但产品倾向过度预测枯水事件发生的可能性,在实际生产运用中需得到重视。研究成果可为基于中长期预报的长江上游水库群提前蓄水调度提供科学依据与技术支撑。
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has released seasonal GloFAS Seasonal runoff and SEAS5 precipitation ensemble forecast products in recent years.The runoff forecast of six control stations and the areal precipitation forecast of four sub-areas in the upper Yangtze River are selected.The prediction ability of the two products for dry scenario in the upper Yangtze River reservoirs impounding period are evaluated by calculating and analyzing the indicators such as AUC,ROCSS and reliability.The evaluation results show that the two products could predict the occurrence of dry scenario one month in advance,and the products tend to over-predict the possibility of dry scenario events,which needs to be considered in practice.This study can provide a scientific basis and technical support for reservoir impounding operation based on medium and long-term forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin.
作者
陈柯兵
郭生练
王俊
何绍坤
熊丰
邓乐乐
孙思瑞
CHEN Kebing;GUO Shenglian;WANG Jun;HE Shaokun;XIONG Feng;DENG Lele;SUN Sirui(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Middle Changjiang River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2020年第3期73-80,共8页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0402206)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879192)。
关键词
降水和径流预报产品
中长期预报
梯级水库群
蓄水调度
枯水情景
长江上游
product of forecasting of precipitation and runoff
medium and long-term forecast
cascade reservoirs
impounding operation
dry scenario
upper Yangtze River
