城乡居民基础养老金最低标准调整机制与方案——基于充足、公平和可负担的综合分析

Adjustment Mechanism and Policy Recommendation of Minimum Standard of Basic Pension for Urban and Rural Residents:Comprehensive Analysis Based on Equity,Adequacy and Affordability

城乡居民基本养老保险制度建立十年来,基础养老金最低标准未形成常态化调整,还不能有效抵御贫困风险,领取待遇的老年居民未能同步分享经济增长成果。2018年《关于建立城乡居民基本养老保险待遇确定和基础养老金正常调整机制的指导意见》提出,要适时提出基础养老金最低标准的调整方案,其建议的基本原则可归纳为稳定充足性、群体公平性和财政可负担。据此,文章选择消费物价指数、职工基本养老金增长率和农村居民人均可支配收入增长率作为参数,分别设计"跟从国家贫困线趋势"和"跟从老年基本消费线趋势"两个方案对参数系数做了估值,提出了两个方案的基础养老金最低标准调整机制。对比发现,经调整后的基础养老金最低标准增长更稳定,且中央财政补助的负担变化不大。进一步,对调整机制随政策环境变化做了说明。最后,本文提出尽快明确基础养老金待遇调整基本原则和强化中央财政补助责任的政策建议。

In the past 10 years since the establishment of the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents,there has been no regular adjustment to the minimum standard of basic pension,and it has not effectively resisted the risk of poverty,and beneficiaries have not shared in the fruits of economic growth.In 2018,the Guidelines on Establishing Adjustment Mechanism and Determination Mechanism for the Basic Pension of Urban and Rural Residents proposed that the adjustment mechanism should be put forward in due time.The basic principles of adjustment mechanism proposed can be summarized as adequacy,equity and affordability.On this basis,the paper selects consumer price index,growth rate of workers’basic pension and growth rate of rural residents per capita disposable income as parameters;points"following the growth of the national poverty line"or"following the growth of the old-age basic consumption"as constraints;calculates the values of coefficients for these two scenarios;and finally puts forward adjustment mechanisms for these two scenarios.It is found that following the adjustment mechanism makes the growth of minimum basic pension increasing more steadily and the burden of central government even not becoming heavier.Additionally,it is explained in the paper that the adjustment mechanism will change with the development of governmental policy.Finally,two proposals are recommended to clarify the official principles for adjusting public pension of urban and rural residents annually and to enlarge the proportion of central government subsidy.