日俄争议领土交涉中的美国因素

The US Factor in Japan-Russia Negotiations over Disputed Territory

美国因素对“北方领土”问题的形成和发展具有重要影响。冷战架构下追随美国对抗苏联,成为日本外交的必然选择。冷战结束后基于国家利益的考量,日本寻求战略自主性。改善与俄罗斯的关系,解决两国间的领土问题,成为日本外交的重要目标之一。但日美同盟一直是日俄领土交涉的“拦路虎”,日本对俄领土外交在俄美之间面临两难困境。同时乌克兰危机和“特朗普冲击”也使俄美关系和日美同盟陷入困境,增加了日俄领土交涉的不确定性。未来日俄领土交涉将会继续囿于日美同盟和俄美关系框架内,短期内很难取得实质性进展。

The US factor has an important influence on the formation and development of the“Northern Territory”issue.Following the United States under the Cold War framework has become an inevitable choice for Japanese diplomacy.Based on the consideration of national interests after the end of the Cold War,Japan sought its diplomatic independence.Improving relations with Russia and solving the territorial issue between the two countries have become one of the important goals of Japan’s diplomacy.However,the Japan-US alliance has always been a“blocker”for negotiations between Japan and Russia,and Japan faces a dilemma between Russia and the US.At the same time,the Ukrainian crisis and the“Trump Shock”have also put Russia-US relations and the Japan-US alliance in trouble,and increased the uncertainty of negotiations between Japan and Russia.In the future,Japan-Russia territorial negotiations will be confined within the framework of the Japan-US alliance and Russia-US relations and can hardly make substantial progress in the short term.