社会经济因素对布鲁氏菌病流行的影响

The influence of socio-economic factors on the epidemic of brucellosis

目的研究2005-2017年来布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)流行现状,探讨社会经济因素与布病流行趋势之间的关联。方法以广东省为主要研究现场,收集广东省疾病预防控制中心公布的2005-2017年人布病病例数据。同时收集广东省同时期内社会经济学数据,包括人均国内(地区)生产总值,居民消费、批零餐饮业与畜牧养殖业数据。结果2005-2017年广东省布病发病率呈快速上升趋势,2015年达到最高并保持较高水平。人均GDP与布病对数发病率线性相关,相关系数0.962。居民消费行为与布病流行有相关性。排除共线性因素后,人均消费支出和人均肉类消费量纳入直线方程,标准化回归系数为0.894和0.066。社会消费零售总额和批发零售餐饮从业人员数均与布病对数发病率成正相关,相关系数分别为0.958和0.927。广东省牛羊肉总产量总体持平,而外地输入牛羊肉量在2013年开始大幅增加,外地输入量与布病发病率的回归系数为0.886。结论居民消费增加和外地牛羊肉输入是广东省2005-2017年来布病再度流行的影响因素。广东省布病可能主要与居民消费行为改变,批零餐饮行业增长和外地畜牧业动物及产品输入有关。

Objective To study the epidemic situation of brucellosis in recent years and discuss the relationship between social economic factors and the epidemic trend of brucellosis.Methods The data of human brucellosis cases from 2005 to2017 published by the CDC of Guangdong province were collected.At the same time,the socio-economic data of Guangdong province in the same period,mainly including data of per capita GDP,consumer spending,total retail sales of consumer goods and animal husbandry were collected.Results The incidence of brucellosis in Guangdong province increased rapidly from 2005 to 2017,and reached the highest level in 2015 and remained high level through 2015 to 2017.The consumption level of residents was related to the prevalence of brucellosis.After excluding the collinearity factors,the per capita consumption expenditure and per capita meat consumption were included in the linear equation with standardized regression coefficients 0.894 and 0.066.The total retail sales of social consumption and the number of zero employees were positively related to the logarithmic incidence of brucellosis,with correlation coefficients 0.958 and 0.927,respectively.The animal husbandry in Guangdong province remained stable during this period,while the amount of beef and mutton imported from other area increased significantly since 2013.The regression coefficient between the imported value of animal product and brucellosis incidence was 0.886.Conclusions The increase of resident consumption and the input of beef and mutton from other area were the impact factor of the epidemic of brucellosis in Guangdong province.Brucellosis in Guangdong province might be mainly related to the increase of consumption level of residents,the growth of wholesale and retail catering industry and the import of animal husbandry and products from other places.