基于多元回归和灰色预测的浙江省文化产业发展影响因素的计量分析

Development of Zhejiang Cultural Industry Based on Multiple Regression and Grey Prediction Quantitative Analysis of Influencing Factors

浙江省作为文化强省,文化产业发展不断进步,但产业生产总值的增加并不明显,因此探究浙江省文化产值的影响因素。从经济发展、产业消费、产业投入等角度选取了10个指标初步构建计量模型,并使用EViews和Stata软件对模型进行优化与检验,最终得到影响浙江省文化产值的主要影响因素为经济发展、产业结构、产业投入以及产业发展源动力。接着构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测浙江省文化产业产值,预测模型较为精准。在今后的发展中,浙江省应当提升就业人员专业素养,优化产业结构、加大文化产业财政支出,扩大文化产业的规模,才能让浙江省的优秀文化“走出去”,更好的促进经济发展。

As a strong cultural province,Zhejiang has made continuous progress in the development of cultural industry,but the increase in the gross domestic product is not obvious.Therefore,to explore the influencing factors affecting the cultural output value of Zhejiang Province,this paper selects 10 indicators to construct the measurement model from the perspectives of economic development,industrial consumption,industrial input,etc.,and uses EViews and Stata software to optimize and test the model.Finally,the main influencing factors affecting the cultural output value of Zhejiang Province are economic development,industrial structure,industrial investment and industrial development source.Then the GM(1,1)gray prediction model is constructed to predict the output value of Zhejiang cultural industry,and the prediction model is more accurate.In the future development,Zhejiang Province should improve the professional quality of employed personnel,optimizing the industrial structure,increasing the financial expenditure of the cultural industry,and expanding the development of the cultural industry,in order to let the excellent culture of Zhejiang Province"go out"and better develop the economy.