中部地区农村居民购买商业养老保险的影响因素研究

Study on the influencing factors of rural residents' purchase of commercial endowment insurance in central China

针对中部地区农村居民选择商业养老保险的影响因素进行研究,从CFPS数据库中选择农村居民受访者子女数目,是否持有金融商品,是否选择商业养老保险等10个指标,划分为个人情况、经济情况、家庭情况及行为特征四大类。其次,利用二元Logistic回归模型的相关理论并通过SPSS求解得出工作性质、学历、人均家庭纯收入和是否持有金融产品4个变量对农村居民购买商业养老保险意愿影响显著。然后,将原始数据划分为训练集和测试集,通过Python构建决策树和随机森林模型预测居民是否购买商业养老保险,模型预测准确率可分别达到71%和77.9%。

In the study of rural population in the region choosing the influence factors of commercial endowment insurance,we choose the number of rural residents respondents children from CFPS database,whether financial holding products,whether to choose 10 indexes such as commercial endowment insurance,is divided into individual situation,economic situation,family status and behavior characteristics of 4 major categories,and eliminating the invalid samples.Secondly,using the relevant theories of binary Logistic regression model and solving by SPSS,four variables,namely,job nature,educational background,per capita household net income and whether or not to hold financial products,have a significant impact on rural residents'willingness to buy commercial endowment insurance.Then,the original data was divided into training set and test set,and the Decision Tree and Random Forest model were constructed by Python to predict whether residents buy commercial pension insurance.The prediction accuracy of the model was up to 71%and 77.9%.