基于FRAM的铁路危险品运输事故演化机制研究

Accident evolution mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation based on FRAM

为预防铁路危险品运输事故,基于功能共振分析法(FRAM)分析铁路危险品运输系统风险-事故演化机制,进而研究对应控制方法。在建立铁路危险品运输系统风险-事故演化层级网络的基础上,将影响FRAM中输入、前提等属性的风险因素分为人、设施设备、货物、环境和管理5大类;以华东某站氰化钠泄漏事故为例进行研究,结果表明:匿报危险品种类、违规包装和检查人员失职3个功能模块导致各自功能模块内部变化,并引起功能模块的不正常振荡,通过非线性、动态性耦合作用和功能连接传递,使功能模块间发生非线性耦合共振,导致运输危险品与卸载危险品2个模块之间的连接断裂并超越系统风险-事故临界阈值,宏观层级结构发生阶跃式突变,最终导致事故。

In order to prevent safety accidents in railway dangerous goods transportation system,riskaccident evolution mechanism of it was analyzed and corresponding control methods were studied based on FRAM.A hierarchical risk-accident evolution network was established,and risk elements that influenced input and premise of FRAM were categorized into five aspects,personnel,equipment,goods,environment and management.Finally,odium cyanide leakage accident of a station in eastern China was analyzed for case study.The results show that three functional modules,including concealment of dangerous goods types,illegal packing and malpractice of inspectors,cause internal changes of respective modules as well as abnormal oscillations which are transmitted through non-linear and dynamic coupling effects and functional connections,further leading to non-linear coupled resonance among these functional modules.The connection between dangerous good transportation and unloading functional modules is broken and exceeds system risk-accident critical threshold,and macro-level structure sees a step mutation,resulting in an accident.