迈向“十四五”的中国服务业:趋势预判、关键突破与政策思路

China's Service Industry towards the“14th Five-Year Plan”:Trend Prediction,Key Breakthrough and Policy Thinking

“十三五”时期,中国服务业发展成绩斐然,服务业正迎来全面跃升的新阶段。“十四五”时期,中国服务业潜力巨大,前景广阔,将延续稳中向上的发展态势。预计到2025年,中国服务业增加值占比、服务业劳动就业占比、服务业固定资产投资占比和服务消费占比将分别达到59.05%、54.98%、60.52%和50.40%,服务业劳动生产率将由2019年的14.62万元/人提高到2025年17.90万元/人。据此判断,“十四五”时期中国服务业的主导地位将进一步巩固,服务经济的时代特征将更加显著。中国服务业正处在转型升级的关键时期,要实现高质量发展这一重大目标,需要综合施策,协同推进,在充分发挥市场机制决定性作用的基础上合理运用政府政策,推动服务业在数字化、平台化、智能化、融合化和标准化等关键环节率先突破,力促服务业发展规模和质量迈上新台阶。

During the“13th Five-Year Plan”period,China's service industry has made the remarkable achievements,and the development of service industry is ushering in a new stage of overall leap.During the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,China's service industry has the huge potential and broad prospects,and will continue to develop steadily and upward.By 2025,it is estimated that the added value,labor employment,fixed asset investment and service consumption of China's service industry will account for 59.05%,54.98%,60.52%and 50.40%respectively.The labor productivity of service industry will increase from RMB Yuan 146200 per person in 2019 to RMB Yuan 179000 per person in 2025.According to this judgment,the dominant position of China's service industry will be further consolidated during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,and the characteristics of the service economy era will be more significant.China's service industry is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading.To achieve the major goal of high-quality development,we need to take the comprehensive measures and have the collaborative promotion.On the basis of giving full play to the decisive role of the market mechanism,we need to make the rational use of government policies,promote the service industry to take the lead in the key links such as digitalization,platforming,intellectualization,integration,standardization,etc.and promote the development scale and quality of service industry to a new level.