基于VAR模型的人口老龄化对安徽省城镇居民医疗保健消费支出影响研究

Research on the impact of population aging on Anhui Province health care consumption expenditure of urban residents based on VAR model

基于1999-2018年安徽省年龄中位数与城镇居民家庭年人均医疗保健消费支出的时间序列数据,通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),综合运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解等方法,就人口老龄化对城镇居民医疗保健消费支出的影响进行实证研究.结果表明,人口老龄化与城镇居民医疗保健消费支出之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,尽管前者对后者的促进作用并不是十分明显,但仍会形成长期的正向影响.因此,提出控制医疗保健价格,健全养老保障体系,重视人口老龄化现象,发展多元养老模式的对策建议.

Based on the time series data of the median age and the annual per capita health care consumption expenditure of urban residents of Anhui Province from 1999 to 2018,through the establishment of a vector autoregressive model(VAR),comprehensive use of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition and other methods,the impact of population aging on urban residentshealth care consumption expenditure is studied empirically.The results show that there is a one-way Granger causality between population aging and health care consumption expenditure of urban residents,although the former is not very obvious in promoting the latter,it will still form a long-term positive effect.Some countermeasures and suggestions was put forward to control the price of health care,improve the old-age care security system,pay attention to the phenomenon of aging population,develop multiple pension model.