基于Theil指数的粤港澳大湾区协调发展研究

An Analysis of the Imbalance of Economic Development in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Based on Theil index

本文通过运用Theil指数和GIS空间分析方法,以粤港澳大湾区11个城市行政单元的人均GDP和人均收入作为分析指标,分析了粤港澳大湾区经济发展差异的时空格局演化规律和特征,结果表明:(1)广州、佛山、东莞、深圳、香港是粤港澳大湾区经济发展不平衡的主要城市,但粤港澳大湾区经济发展差异整体呈现不断降低的趋势。(2)无论是以人均GDP还是人均纯收入为指标进行测算,区域内部各市之间经济发展的不平衡是粤港澳大湾区经济发展不平衡的主要因素,东西部区域间的不平衡性远低于区域内部的不平衡性。(3)粤港澳大湾区东西部之间的不平衡性基本维持一个平稳的状态,不平衡性结果相差不大,但是东西部内部之间的不平衡性波动较大,不平衡性结果相差较大。(4)以人均收入进行测算的粤港澳大湾区经济发展不平衡性比按人均GDP测算时大。文章提出了缩小粤港澳大湾区经济发展差异和整体协调发展的对策建议。

By using the Theil index and GIS spatial analysis method,taking the per capita GDP and per capita income of 11 administrative units of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area as the analysis index,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern evolution law and characteristics of the unbalanced economic development of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Bay area.The results show that:(1)Guangzhou,Foshan,Dongguan,Shenzhen and Hong Kong are the unbalanced economic development of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Bay area However,the imbalance of economic development in Guangdong,Hong Kong,Macao and the Great Bay area is decreasing.(2)Whether measured by GDP per capita or net income per capita,the imbalance of economic development among cities within the region is the main factor of the imbalance of economic development in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.The imbalance between the eastern and western regions is far lower than that within the region.(3)The imbalance between the East and the west of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay basically maintains a stable state,and the results of the imbalance are similar,but the imbalance between the East and the West fluctuates greatly,and the results of the imbalance are quite different.(4)The imbalance of economic development in the Greater Bay area of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao mea-sured by per capita income is greater than that measured by per capita GDP.Based on this,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the economic development differences and overall coordinated development of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.