基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的隧道坍塌风险评价

Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse by EW-AHP and Unascertained Measure Theory

评价隧道施工中坍塌风险,确定隧道坍塌风险发生的可能性等级对降低隧道施工风险、预测和控制风险有着重要的意义。提出了一种基于熵权法与层次分析法和未确知测度理论的隧道坍塌风险评价方法。该方法先基于现有的研究选取围岩等级、断裂破碎带宽度、地下水状况等11个评价指标,以此建立隧道坍塌风险评价指标体系,并建立了隧道坍塌风险可能性分级标准;然后将层次分析(AHP)法和熵权(EW)法运用乘法合成归一化方法来确定评价指标的综合权重,采用EW-AHP和未确知测度理论确定研究对象的多指标综合测度评价向量,并根据最大隶属度原则确定隧道坍塌风险可能性等级;最后运用该评价方法对新疆3条特长引水隧道10个研究区段发生坍塌风险的可能性进行了评价,并与实际调查结果进行对比。结果表明:该评价方法的评价结果与实际情况基本符合,且评价方法合理、有效,可为隧道坍塌风险评价提供参考。

Assessing tunnel collapse risk and determining the probability level of tunnel collapse risk is greatly significant,which can reduce the tunnel construction risk and predict and control the risk.This paper proposes a tunnel collapse risk assessment method based on entrope weight method and uncertainty measurement theory.Firstly,through the existing research summary and discussion,the paper determines 11tunnel collapse indexes,such as surrounding rock grade,fracture zone width and groundwater condition so as to establish an evaluation index system and a risk possibility classification standard for tunnel collapse risk.Then the paper adopts Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Entropy Weight method(EW)to determine the comprehensive weight by multiplication synthesis normalization method,and adopts unascertained measure theory to determine the multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector of the research object and determines the tunnel collapse risk probability grade according to the maximum membership principle.Finally,the paper applies the method to evaluating the collapse risk possibility of 10research sections of 3super long water diversion tunnels in Xinjiang and to analyzing and comparing with the actual investigation.The results show that the model evaluation results are basically in line with the actual situation,and the evaluation method is reasonable and effective.It can provide a reference for the tunnel risk possibility evaluation.