城市更新如何影响流动人口的居留意愿:以棚改为例

How Does Urban Renewal Affect Willingness to Stay for Migrants:Evidence from Shantytown Redevelopment in China

近年来,在以人为核心的新型城镇化背景下,城市更新逐渐成为集约利用土地资源、改善人居环境质量、提升城市宜居性和吸引力的重要途径,基于此本文旨在研究人居环境改善对劳动力流动决策的影响。本文首先基于城市空间均衡理论分析城市更新对劳动力流动的影响机理,然后以2015年91个城市的棚户区改造为例,并结合中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用二值响应Probit模型实证考察了城市更新对流动人口长期居留意愿的影响。为克服内生性,本文使用省级棚改计划量与各市人口占比构造工具变量,利用两阶段回归方法进一步识别城市更新影响流动人口居留意愿的因果效应。研究发现,城市更新对流动人口居留意愿具有显著的正向影响,棚户区改造规模每增加1%,流动人口的长期居留的概率将提高0.352个百分点。城市更新对流动人口居留意愿的影响具有显著的异质性特征,其中,城市更新对高收入和高技能水平流动人口的吸引力更强,小城市的城市更新对流动人口居留意愿的影响效应比大城市更为明显。

In recent years,urban renewal has gradually become an important way to conserve land resources and to improve quality of life and attractiveness of cities,in the context of new urbanization with people at its core.This paper focuses on the impact of urban renewal on labor mobility with urban spatial equilibrium theory.We take shantytown redevelopment in 91 cities in 2015 as an example,and use 2016 China Migrants Dynamics Survey data,to empirically study the impact of urban renewal on the willingness to stay of migrants using a Probit model.In order to solve the endogenous problem,this paper uses the instrumental variable method to estimate the effect of urban renewal on willingness to stay.Results show that urban renewal has a significantly positive impact on migrants'willingness to stay.Specifically,for every 1 percent increase in the number of redeveloped shantytown units,the probability of willingness to stay would increase by 0.352 percentage points.The effects are heterogeneous among different migrants and cities.In general,urban renewal is more attractive to high-income and high-skilled migrants than to those with low-income and low-skill,and the effect of urban renewal is much stronger in small cities than in large cities.