上海地区高温时空分布特征及对农作物影响分析

Characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of the high temperatures in Shanghai and its influence on crops

根据1981-2018年上海市11个自动气象站日最高气温等资料,采用线性倾向、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析上海市高温日数的时间变化特征,采用ArcGIS插值法分析高温日数的空间分布特征。结果表明:上海各区高温日数的时间变化呈上升趋势,其中2000年之前,市区和近郊的升幅总体相当,但2000年之后,近郊升幅加快并超过市区,而远郊升幅始终较为平缓且落后于市区和近郊;上海市各区高温日数的季节性特征明显,其中7月上旬-8月中旬占比最多(占比超80%);市区和近郊的高温日数存在明显的突变特征,其中分别在1992年和1999年出现了突变,而远郊并未出现;上海各区高温日数存在3-6 a的变化周期;上海高温日数在空间上呈现“由内(市区)向外(郊区)递减”的分布特征,而高温极值中心则出现在近郊;5-9月份上海地区农作物应种植耐高温的品种,早熟稻和蔬菜等宜种植在远郊,近郊种植常规稻和耐高温的作物。该研究结果可为上海农业结构调整、土地规划等提供技术参考。

Using the daily maximum temperature data at 11 observational stations in Shanghai region from 1981 to 2018,and the methods of a linear trend,a Morlet wavelet analysis,a Mann-Kendall test and ArcGIS interpolation to analyze the temporal variation characteristics and the spatial distribution of the high temperature.The results showed that the long term evolution of annual high temperature days in the most areas of Shanghai was in an increasing trend,the increase was generally equivalent between the urban areas and the suburbs,while relatively less in the exurbs,the change occurred in 2000 that the suburbs increased more than the urban areas;The high temperature days of Shanghai appeared and concentrated in early July to mid-August(which accounted for more than 80%);an abrupt change appeared in 1992 for the urban areas,also in 1999 for the suburbs,while not significant for the exurbs;it had a cycle variations of 3-6 years for annual high temperature days in Shanghai;the spatial distribution of annual high temperature days in Shanghai represented the characteristics of decreasing from inside(urban areas)to outside(suburban district),and the high value center was in the suburbs;the crops should be planted such variety with high temperature resistance from May to September,early maturing rice and vegetables should be planted in the exurbs,conventional rice and high temperature resistant crops should be planted in the suburbs.The results derived from the present study can provide technical reference for agricultural structure adjustment and land use planning of Shanghai.