孔子学院时空分布格局及影响因素

The Spatial-temporal pattern of Confucius Institutes and Influencing Factors

文化扩散是近年来我国文化“走出去”的重要内容,但在中国文化全球扩散的研究中对传播载体的研究比较薄弱。基于孔子学院(课堂)数据,运用面板计量模型结合地缘理论对2004-2017年孔子学院时空演化格局及影响因素进行深入分析。研究发现(1)2004年以来,孔子学院建设时空格局总体呈现集聚-扩散-集聚。初期集聚在欧亚大陆,然后向全球扩散,最后形成欧洲、北美集聚。(2)以发达国家深度传播为主,兼顾全球扩散的范围广度,经历了“增点-扩面-聚团”的模式演化。建设初期,为扩大孔子学院的影响力,在全球各大洲布点,达到一定覆盖面后,开始集中力量在欧美发达国家深度发展。(3)面板回归模型显示,2010年以来东道国国土面积、人口数量、人均GDP、与中国建交时长、双边进出口贸易额、首都直线距离共同影响孔子学院时空格局,其中以建交时长和双边进出口贸易为代表的地缘政治、地缘经济因素格外显著。本研究可以为孔子学院建设布局提供一定的理论与决策参考。

Cultural diffusion is an important part of human geography research,but the research on communication vectors is weak in the study of global diffusion of Chinese culture.Based on the Confucius Institute(classroom)data,the panel data model and geography theory were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of the Confucius Institute from 2004 to 2017.The study found that:(1)Since 2004,the time and space pattern of the Confucius Institute construction has generally concentrated-diffusion-aggregation.Initially concentrated in Eurasia,and then spread to the world,and finally formed in Europe,North America.(2)Based on the deep dissemination of developed countries,taking into account the breadth of global diffusion,it has experienced the evolution of the model of“increasing point-expanding-aggregating”.In the early stage of construction,in order to expand the influence of the Confucius Institute,and to reach a certain level of coverage on all continents of the world,we began to concentrate on the in-depth development of developed countries in Europe and America.(3)The panel regression model shows that since 2010,the land area,population,per capita GDP of the host country,the length of time of establishing diplomatic relations with China,the bilateral import and export trade volume,and the straight line distance of the capital have affected the time and space pattern of the Confucius Institute,including the duration of diplomatic relations and bilateral import and export.The geopolitical and geoeconomic factors represented by trade are particularly significant.