“全面二孩”政策背景下城乡家庭生育意愿的影响因素研究——以环巢湖地区城乡家庭为例

A Study on the Impact Factors of Procreating Willingness of Urban and Rural Families under the Background of“Comprehensive Two-Child Policy”:A Case Study of Urban and Rural Families around Chaohu Lake

“全面二孩”政策是人口供给侧结构性改革中缓解人口结构问题的重要举措,2016年实施以来,人们的生育意愿情况以及影响因素是社会关注的焦点。文章选择环巢湖5个区县中不同年龄段、收入、职业以及受教育程度的一孩家庭育龄妇女作为调查对象,进行随机问卷调查。根据调研数据,从是否生育二孩、意愿生育时间、意愿生育性别、意愿生育原因四个方面统计分析人们的二孩生育意愿情况;并利用二元Logit离散选择模型深入研究二孩生育意愿的影响因素。结果显示:“全面二孩”政策下环巢湖地区居民二孩生育意愿没有显著提高,二孩生育意愿受到个人、家庭和社会多方面因素的影响,其中教育费用、老人是否帮助照顾孩子以及政策影响力度尤为显著。最后,提出对策建议,以推动政策更好的实施,优化人口结构,维持社会人口红利。

The“comprehensive two-child policy”is an important measure to alleviate the problem of population structure in the structural reform of the population supply side.Since its implementation in 2016,people’s procreating willingness and impact factors have become the focus of social attention.In this paper,women of one-child families,who come from the five districts and counties around Chaohu Lake and possess different ages,incomes,occupations and educational levels,are selected as the survey objects,and a random questionnaire survey was conducted.Accord⁃ing to the survey data,the paper statistically analyzes people’s willingness to procreate two children from four aspects:whether to procreate two children,the time of procreating willingness,the gender of willingness to procreate and the rea⁃sons for procreating willingness.Meanwhile this paper adopts binary Logit discrete selection model to deeply study the impact factors of willingness of procreating two children.The results show that procreating willingness of around Chao⁃hu Lake residents has not increased significantly under the“comprehensive two-child policy”and their procreating willingness is influenced by a variety of factors,including individual,family and social factors,among which the educa⁃tion cost,old people’s help and the influence of the policy are particularly significant.Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the better implementation of this policy so as to optimize the population structure and maintain the social demographic dividend.