新冠疫情叠加中美贸易争端背景下全球价值链新动向研究

Research on New Trends in Global Value Chains in the Context of the COVID-19 and Sino-US Trade Disputes

新冠疫情在世界范围内的流行,严重冲击了全球价值链。中国作为第一大货物贸易国,对外依存度高,且处于价值链中低端,是全球价值链易受到冲击的直接原因。新冠疫情叠加中美贸易争端的余波,从需求和供给两个渠道冲击价值链,使得中国面临雪上加霜的双重打击。疫情的两轮冲击率先作用于中国外贸出口,随着我国经济的恢复和海外疫情的扩散,疫情对价值链的冲击将由供给转向需求,出现进出口不对称下降的现象,使得未来我国贸易差额变动的趋势更加具有不确定性。进入后疫情时代,中美之间的战略竞争将进一步加剧,地缘政治因素、民粹主义成为美国“规锁中国”,进而冲击中国在全球价值链地位的催化剂。跨国公司布局全球价值链时,价值观和安全考量将高于经济效率,产业链更短、更分散、更本地化成为新趋势。短期来看,中国应力保已有供应链不中断;中期应提升自身能力,降低被替代的可能性;长期应加快市场化经济体制改革,加强区域经济合作,合理布局产业链,谋求中国在全球价值链布局中的利益最大化。

The worldwide pandemic of the COVID-19 has severely impacted the global value chain.As the largest trading country in goods,China is highly dependent on foreign countries and is at the middle and low end of the value chain,which is the direct reason why the global value chains are vulnerable to shocks.The COVID-19 and the aftermath of the Sino-US trade dispute have impacted the value chain from two channels,demand and supply,and China is facing a double blow that is even worse.The impact of two rounds of the COVID-19 took the lead on China s foreign trade exports.With the recovery of China s economy and the spread of overseas pandemic,the impact of the COVID-19 on the value chain will shift from supply to demand,resulting in an asymmetric decline in imports and exports,which makes China s trade balance in the future uncertain.In the post-pandemic era,the strategic competition between China and the United States will intensify,and geopolitical factors and populism have become a catalyst for the United States to“confine China”and then impact China s position in the global value chain.When multinational companies deploy global value chains,values and safety considerations will be higher than economic efficiency,and shorter,more dispersed,and more localized industrial chains will become a new trend.In the short term,China should ensure that its existing supply chain is uninterrupted;in the medium term,China should improve the capabilities to reduce the possibility of being replaced;in the long term,China should accelerate the reform of the market-oriented economic system,strengthen regional economic cooperation,rationally lay out the supply chain,and seek to maximize the interests of China in the global value chain.