药物经济学中肿瘤免疫疗法生存曲线模拟方法探索

Discussion on Simulation Method of Survival Curve of Tumor Immunotherapy in Pharmacoeconomics

目的:探索肿瘤免疫疗法中生存曲线拟合及外推方法,以期为相关研究的推进提供参考。方法:概述目前药物经济学中生存分析方法应用情况,介绍治愈模型,并结合相关实例比较其与传统参数模型在长期拟合中的表现。结果:在治疗可使部分患者实现长期缓解的情况下,传统的参数模型相较于治愈模型低估了患者总体生存时间,影响经济性分析结果。结论:在出现明显平台期或真实世界数据显示患者具有良好预后的治疗中,应考虑使用或纳入治愈模型,以提供更全面、切合的经济性评价结果。

Objective:With the emergence of innovative therapies,the survival curve fitting methods commonly used in pharmacoeconomics have deficiencies in extrapolation.It discusses the extrapolation method of survival curve in tumor immunotherapy,so as to provide references for the advancement of related research.Methods:It summarizes the current application of survival analysis methods in pharmacoeconomics,introduces cure models and compares their performance with standard parametric models in long-term fitting.Results:In the case of treatment that could make some patients cured,the traditional parametric models underestimated the mean overall survival time compared to the cure models,which affects the economic evaluation results.Conclusion:To provide a more comprehensive economic evaluation result,it should be considered to use or inclusion of cure models in where there is a clear plateau or real-world data showing a good prognosis in patients.