三代直系家庭分布影响因素的空间分析——基于2015年1%人口抽样调查数据

Spatial Analyses of Stem Families in China:Based on 2015 One⁃Percent Population Sample Survey

利用2015年1%人口抽样调查数据,通过空间分析探索中国三代直系家庭的分布及其影响因素。结果发现,三代直系家庭比例在中国地级行政单元上存在明显的空间分化,总体呈现出北方较低,南方较高的模式。进一步的可变系数地理加权回归模型显示,社会经济、人口和文化等因素均会影响三代直系家庭的分布,但是它们的效应存在显著的空间异质性。社会经济发展和人口因素会因地区文化和城镇化模式的差异而呈现出对三代直系家庭比例截然相反的促进或是抑制作用。同时,房价因素也会受地区对房价敏感程度的影响产生分化效果。这些结果说明,社会经济发展水平、发展模式和文化传统这三者会形成一种相互作用又协同进化的关系,它们之间的复杂互动塑造了中国家庭结构的独特性。

Based on the 2015 Chinese 1%population survey,this study examines the spatial pat⁃terns of Chinese stem family and its influencing factors.It is found that there is significant heterogeneity among the distribution of stem families at the prefecture⁃level city with generally higher proportion of stem family in the south China and lower proportion in the north China.We further explore the spatial variation of factors affecting stem families using Geographic Weighted Regression(GWR)model.The results demonstrate that socioeconomic,demographic,and culture factors all play important roles in determining the distribution of stem families.The former two factors can exhibit opposite impact condi⁃tioned on the local culture and the development model of urbanization.Meanwhile,the impact of hous⁃ing price is also divergent depending on the sensitivity of local housing market to the price change.These results suggest that the interplay of socioeconomic level,development mode,and cultural tradi⁃tion ultimately shapes the pattern of Chinese stem family.