南通市2010-2019年生殖道沙眼衣原体感染流行特征及趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in Nantong from 2010 to 2019

目的了解南通市生殖道沙眼衣原体感染流行特征及流行趋势,为制定防治策略提供科学依据。方法运用描述流行病学方法对南通市2010-2019年生殖道沙眼衣原体感染病例资料进行分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2020-2021年病例数进行预测。结果2010-2019年南通市累计报告生殖道沙眼衣原体感染病例4083例,年均发病率5.58/10万,发病率呈上升趋势(χ^2趋势=251.96,P<0.01)。男性病例754例、女性病例3329例,男女发病性别比0.23∶1;20~29岁报告病例最多,占53.29%(2176/4083);婚姻状况以已婚为主,共3394例,占83.13%;职业分布前3位分别为家务及待业、工人、农民,分别占62.94%(2570/4083)、9.75%(398/4083)、9.43%(385/4083);文化程度为初中的病例数最多,占48.44%(1978/4083);发病率居前3位的地区分别为崇川区、开发区和港闸区,年均发病率分别为20.41/10万、14.19/10万和8.04/10万。GM(1,1)模型预测南通市2020-2021年生殖道沙眼衣原体感染病例数分别为650例、714例。结论南通市2010-2019年生殖道沙眼衣原体感染呈低流行水平,但疫情呈上升趋势,应及时调整防控策略,进一步加强防控。

Objective To understand the prevalence characteristics and trends of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in Nantong City,and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection from 2010 to 2019 in Nantong,and the number of cases in 2020-2021 was predicted by gray system GM(1,1)model.Results From 2010 to 2019,a total of 4083 cases of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection were reported,with an average annual incidence of 5.58/100000.The incidence rate showed an upward trend(χ^2trend=251.96,P<0.001).There were 754 male cases and 3329 female cases,with a sex ratio of 0.23∶1.Most cases were reported in the age group of 20~29 years old,accounting for 53.29%(2176/4083).The majority of cases were married,accounting for 83.13%(3394/4083).The top three occupations on which the disease was concentrated were house workers/people waiting for employment,workers and farmers,which accounted for 62.94%(2570/4083),9.75%(398/4083)and 9.43%(385/4083),respectively.The number of cases with junior high school degree was the largest,accounting for 48.44%(1978/4083).The areas which had the top three incidence rates were Chongchuan District,Kaifa District and Gangzha District,and their average annual incidences were 20.41/100000,14.19/100000 and 8.04/100000,respectively.The GM(1,1)model predicted that the number of cases with genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in Nantong in 2020-2021 were 650 and 714,respectively.Conclusion The prevalence of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in Nantong is low,but the epidemic trend is on rise.It is necessary to adjust strategy in time and further strengthen the prevention and control work.