中国制造业增加值率变化的特点及其启示

The Characteristics of the Change of Value Added Rate of China’s Manufacturing Industry and Its Enlightenment

本文利用联合国工业发展组织(UNIDO)数据和中国(含各省)投入产出表(1987-2017),对世界各国制造业增加值率的一般规律、中国制造业增加值率的变化特征,以及增加值率与经济发展水平的关系进行分析。从世界范围来看,制造业增加值率与经济发展水平之间呈"U型"关系,而中国处于向"U型"曲线右侧转型的阶段;由于制造业结构升级、产业分工细化等因素影响,中国制造业增加值率总体呈现下降态势,还未出现"由降转升"的趋势性大转折;国内各省份的制造业增加值率与经济发展水平总体呈负相关关系,制造业增加值率的变化反映了国内各省份的制造业呈现梯次优化升级的特征,东部省份率先进入向高质量发展转型的阶段。本研究认为,应区分发展阶段、长期与短期、微观与宏观的视角看待制造业增加值率的变化,不能简单地将增加值率作为制造业结构升级与效率提升的指标。此外,国内各省份应遵循产业发展的一般规律,根据各省份实际情况加快推进制造业优化升级。

Based on the data of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization(UNDO)and the input-output table of China(including provinces)(1987-2017),the paper analyzes the general law of the value-added rate of manufacturing industry of the world,the change characteristics of the value-added rate of China’s manufacturing industry,and the relationship between the value-added rate and the level of economic development.From a global perspective,the relationship between the value-added rate of manufacturing industry and the level of economic development is"U-shaped",while China is in the stage of transition to the right side of the"U-shaped"curve.Due to the influence of factors such as the upgrading of manufacturing structure and the refinement of industrial division,China’s manufacturing value-added rate has generally shown a downward trend,and there has not been a major turning point of"from decline to rise".In various provinces in China,there is a negative correlation between the manufacturing added value rate and the economic development level.The change of the manufacturing value-added rate reflects the characteristics of echelon optimization and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in various provinces in China.The eastern provinces are in the advanced stage of transformation to high-quality development.The paper suggests that we should distinguish the development stage,long-term and short-term,micro and macro perspectives to look at the change of the manufacturing industry value-added rate,and can not simply take the value-added rate as an indicator of the upgrading of manufacturing structure and efficiency.In addition,domestic provinces should follow the general law of industrial development and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing industry according to the actual situation of each province.